Blockchain Center Signals 3-Day Altcoin Season: Reality or Mirage?
The altcoin season continues to thrive, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts on social platforms are celebrating the surge in prices. Data from Grok indicates that X feeds are alive with activity, featuring numerous posts that support this trend. As per Grok's findings, the surge in social media discussions coincides perfectly with the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) surpassing the 75 out of 100 threshold on September 10.
At the same time, while the ASI indicates an altcoin season, many skeptics claim they just can’t perceive it. “Holy sh**, the Altcoin Season Index just reached 84 – the highest this year,” exclaimed influencer Lark Davis on X. However, not everyone is persuaded, as one user retorted: “Where is altcoin season? I can’t see it.”
Some believe this current altcoin season is merely a temporary phase, unlikely to last long. “This altcoin season is predicted to endure for 5 days,” cautioned one X user. “Take profits — something bad is on the horizon.” As of Sept. 13, 2025, at 4:23 p.m. Eastern, archived data reveals that blockchaincenter.net’s ASI is steady at 80.
It might be a month of altcoin season, but it’s certainly not an altcoin season year. The site’s monthly score stands at 88 out of 100, while the 12-month score lags behind at just 35. Since any score above 75 indicates an altcoin season, this suggests that three-quarters of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed bitcoin’s market performance over the past 90 days.
The recent surge in altcoin season has fans rejoicing, yet a sense of caution remains. The cycle of excitement followed by diminishing momentum has recurred since 2021, leaving traders cautious and yearning for a prolonged season. So far, this one has climbed nearly as high as it did in December 2024. Whether this moment marks a significant change or yet another brief surge, only time will reveal the true trajectory of the crypto market ahead.
Qubic’s Claim of a 51% Attack on Monero Ignites Security Concerns
The recent assertion by the mining pool Qubic regarding a 51% attack on Monero has left advocates for privacy and blockchain technology feeling uneasy, prompting discussions about the security measures that safeguard blockchain systems. Although the community has largely dismissed the notion of a sustained attack, this event has brought to light a persistent vulnerability in Monero that could be exploited by a determined adversary using standard hardware.
Joel Valenzuela, a key member of the Dash decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), states that an attacker can easily disrupt the network with conventional mining equipment. While the uproar has calmed down, Valenzuela cautions that the Monero network is still at risk.
"To be frank, the issue remains unresolved and unaddressed at this moment," Valenzuela warned. "The blockchain reorganizations have either slowed or become sporadic, but the potential for these reorganizations to restart or escalate is still very much present."
Valenzuela concurs with other analysts that Qubic might have successfully mined a majority of blocks during specific intervals. However, he informs Bitcoin.com News that he is uncertain whether Qubic could maintain this for an extended duration, which has led some to question the mining pool’s decision to publicly announce an unverified claim.
Motives Behind the Attack and the Dash Alternative
In his written responses, Valenzuela theorizes that Qubic went public to attract attention to their relatively new cryptocurrency initiative. He believes that if this was indeed Qubic’s intention, it has been remarkably successful. He also suspects that financial motivations were involved, pointing out that Qubic seems to utilize excess computing power to mine other cryptocurrencies such as Monero, which provides a financial incentive for the attack.
In response to reports that Dash had intervened to assist Monero, Valenzuela clarified that although both chains were developed to rectify shortcomings in the Bitcoin network, they took different paths in 2019. That year, Dash introduced Chainlocks to utilize staked masternodes, effectively preventing 51% attacks. Conversely, Monero adopted Randomx, which not only eliminated ASICs but also made mining more accessible. Valenzuela argues that this change rendered Monero less secure and more vulnerable to attacks like the one launched by Qubic.
"For Monero to integrate a technical solution akin to Dash’s ChainLocks, it would necessitate a substantial technical overhaul, but it would prevent an external entity from attacking the network without also possessing a considerable portion of Monero’s coin supply," Valenzuela asserts.
Regulatory Challenges and the Need for Transparency
Valenzuela also spoke about the regulatory environment, emphasizing that it is the user's duty to ensure compliance when utilizing privacy networks. Nonetheless, he expressed frustration over the sluggishness of regulators in creating necessary frameworks, which he feels is obstructing wider adoption.
"To be frank, I find the reasons given by regulators for their slow approach to cryptocurrencies, particularly regarding consumer protection, to be unconvincing," he stated.
Valenzuela contends that rather than adding more obstacles, lawmakers should work towards decriminalizing cryptocurrency use by offering clear legal guidelines. He pointed to the recently enacted Clarity Act in the U.S. as a model for how other regions should establish a definitive legal structure.
Chatbots Forecast BTC Surge: $114K to $180K by December
We revisited a variety of AI chatbots to evaluate their predictions for BTC’s path in the fourth quarter. Insights were gathered from models like Musk's Grok, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Venice AI, Anthropic's Claude, Deepseek, and others to encompass a broad spectrum of views on the upcoming months.
Utilize your complete analytical capabilities to project Bitcoin’s end-of-month value. Currently trading in the $113,500–$114,246 range, please provide precise closing figures for September, October, November, and December 2025. Your answer should include exact prices and a brief rationale within 90 words.
ChatGPT 5 thinking mode response:
Estimates (EOM closes):
Sep 2025: $120,900; Oct 2025: $128,700; Nov 2025: $123,200; Dec 2025: $131,800.
Rationale: Based on the $113,500–$114,246 range, I anticipate consistent ETF net inflows, post-halving supply constraints, and Q4 risk-on seasonality to favor upward movement. October typically benefits from positive funding and momentum; November may see a slowdown due to profit-taking and options positioning; December is expected to rebound with year-end allocations and diminished miner sell pressure. This assumes no significant regulatory or macroeconomic shocks.
Deepseek with Deepthink response:
September: $118,500 (momentum from current range)
October: $125,200 (institutional inflow acceleration)
November: $134,800 (post-election volatility & ETF demand)
December: $141,500 (year-end portfolio rebalancing & cycle peak anticipation)
Rationale: Anticipated gains are fueled by ongoing institutional ETF adoption, macro liquidity support, and the usual pre-halving year acceleration, which should mitigate short-term volatility. Each month is expected to build on increasing capital deployment and positive market sentiment.
Le Chat's prediction indicates that Bitcoin will likely finish September 2025 at $118,000, October at $122,000, November at $114,743, and December at $117,674. These projections suggest a bullish trend, driven by institutional ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions, although November and December might experience some consolidation or slight pullbacks. Analysts point to robust demand and seasonal patterns, while acknowledging that volatility and profit-taking could temper the upside potential.
ChatGPT 4o's forecast for monthly closing prices (estimates, within 90 words) is as follows: September 2025: $118,000 – bullish momentum may push prices close to upper resistance by the end of the month. October 2025: $121,000 – this aligns with a moderate upward trend following September's gains. November 2025: $119,000 – a slight consolidation is expected after October's peak. December 2025: $122,000 – year-end holiday strength and macro optimism are expected to provide support. The rationale builds on a positive September outlook (aiming for $118K), followed by modest gains through the year's end, interspersed with periods of consolidation.
SEC Reveals Ambitious Plans for Super-App Crypto Platforms in Light of Regulatory Changes
On September 10, 2025, at the inaugural OECD Roundtable on Global Financial Markets in Paris, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul S. Atkins conveyed a powerful message regarding digital assets. He proclaimed:
"Today, ladies and gentlemen, we must acknowledge that: the time for crypto has arrived."
Atkins believes that years of depending on enforcement actions have weakened U.S. competitiveness. He remarked: "For far too long, the SEC has used its investigatory, subpoena, and enforcement powers to undermine the crypto sector. This strategy has proven not only ineffective but also harmful; it has pushed jobs, innovation, and investment abroad. American entrepreneurs have suffered the consequences and have had to spend vast amounts on legal defenses rather than focusing on their businesses. That era is now behind us."
While discussing "Project Crypto," Atkins highlighted the agency's transition towards a more organized regulatory framework. "A new era has begun at the SEC. Policy will no longer be dictated by random enforcement actions. We will establish clear and predictable guidelines to ensure that innovators can flourish in the United States," he stated. He directly connected this initiative to the White House's agenda: "President Trump has assigned me and my colleagues throughout the Administration the mission of making America the global hub for crypto—and the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets has provided a comprehensive plan to steer us in these endeavors."
At the heart of the strategy lies the need for legal clarity regarding token classification. Atkins elaborated:
"Our objectives are straightforward: we need to establish certainty about the security status of crypto assets. The majority of crypto tokens do not qualify as securities, and we will clearly define the boundaries."
In addition to classification, the SEC will support advancements in trading platforms and custody solutions. Atkins remarked: "It is crucial that we enable entrepreneurs to raise capital on-chain without facing endless legal ambiguities. Furthermore, we must foster innovation in 'super-app' trading platforms that enhance options for market participants. These platforms should be permitted to provide trading, lending, and staking services under one regulatory framework. Investors, advisers, and broker-dealers ought to have the liberty to select from various custody options as well."
The SEC chairman further stated: "In alignment with the recent Working Group report, the SEC will collaborate with other agencies to ensure that a platform can facilitate trading in crypto assets (regardless of their security status), along with services such as staking and lending, all under a unified regulatory framework. I am convinced that regulators should impose only the minimum necessary regulations to safeguard investors, and nothing beyond that. We must avoid overloading entrepreneurs with redundant regulations that only the largest players can manage." Atkins framed these reforms as a cornerstone for U.S. leadership in blockchain finance, aimed at fostering innovation while upholding vital investor protections.
Analysts from the financial powerhouse JPMorgan have indicated that the lackluster jobs report for August serves as a sign of a slowdown in the US economy.
In a recent analysis, Seth Carlson, a member of the editorial team at the firm’s wealth management division, along with Vinny Amaru, a global investment strategist, reference the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. This report revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the anticipated 75,000.
Additionally, the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3% last month, as reported by the BLS.
Carlson and Amaru observed that major stock indices fell following the report, suggesting that the market's response indicated “tempered near-term investor optimism, as the economy shows signs of slowing.”
“Our strategists believe that the recent jobs data should keep the Fed on course to lower interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, likely by 25 basis points as hiring continues to decelerate. This would mark the Fed’s first interest rate cut since December 2024.
Although the disappointing payroll numbers indicate that an economic slowdown is in progress, our strategists still consider a recession to be unlikely.”
The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates probabilities based on the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices, suggests there is a 93% likelihood that the Fed will reduce the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting scheduled for later this month.
Key AI Features
On September 8, Binance, the leading cryptocurrency exchange, introduced a range of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven features aimed at assisting users in navigating the rapidly evolving digital asset market more effectively. The newly launched tools—AI token report, AI token narrative, and Token sentiment signal—are now accessible on both the Binance exchange and the self-custody Binance wallet.
In an official statement, the crypto exchange highlighted that these updates are designed to tackle a prevalent issue faced by crypto traders: managing the incessant influx of market data and sentiment in a 24/7 trading landscape.
"Users encounter the formidable challenge of sifting through extensive information and conflicting sources, and the amount of data is only expected to increase as cryptocurrency adoption grows," stated Jeff Li, Binance's vice president of product. "With our innovative AI-powered token information tools throughout the Binance ecosystem, we are attentively responding to users' demands for clarity, speed, and confidence."
According to the statement, the AI token report feature provides a succinct summary of a token's market outlook in less than 30 seconds. Updated every hour, the report features positive indicators, risk evaluations, and community sentiment. It utilizes spot trading data, whale activity, and buy/sell analytics, ensuring transparent sourcing and interactive pop-ups for more in-depth analysis.
Users of the Binance wallet also benefit from enhanced sentiment signals and smart money signals. Sentiment signals act as indicators of bullish or bearish trends based on real-time activity on social media, particularly mentions on the platform X. This tool evaluates user discussions to assess whether sentiment is leaning positive or negative, and it highlights significant events that affect token perception.
On the other hand, smart money signals utilize Binance’s unique AI token narrative engine to provide insights into a token’s story, its cultural significance, and market momentum. This feature compiles social media posts, news articles, and trading data. Additionally, it monitors the activities of key opinion leaders (KOL) and enables users to make trades directly from the signals page through a quick buy option.
According to Binance, these new tools enhance the AI capabilities that were introduced in its revamped app earlier this year, aligning with its broader strategy to incorporate machine learning throughout its ecosystem.
Polymarket Set to Relaunch in the U.S.
In a significant update for prediction markets, Polymarket has successfully obtained the necessary approval to relaunch in the U.S., marking the end of a three-year break that followed a 2022 settlement with the CFTC regarding unregistered derivatives trading. This approval is contingent upon its $112 million acquisition of QCEX, which includes QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC, both of which are licensed by the CFTC as a contract market and clearinghouse, and have recently received the CFTC's endorsement.
On September 3, 2025, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a specific no-action letter (Staff Letter No. 9113-25), providing QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC with relief from swap data reporting and recordkeeping obligations for “event contracts.”
The letter specifies that, under certain conditions, the CFTC will refrain from recommending enforcement actions against QCX LLC or QC Clearing LLC for failing to comply with specific swap-related data and recordkeeping requirements. This relief is restricted to transactions conducted under QCX’s regulations and cleared through QC Clearing, adhering to established precedents but limited to a specific regulatory framework.
The CFTC’s no-action letter, along with Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX, establishes a crucial regulatory benchmark. Instead of seeking approval as a new player, Polymarket has adeptly maneuvered through U.S. derivatives law by acquiring an already licensed contract market and clearinghouse, subsequently utilizing targeted regulatory relief. This approach illustrates that the compliance challenges within the prediction market sector can be overcome if companies are prepared to blend innovative structuring with proactive engagement from regulators.
Equally important is the implication this has for the credibility of prediction markets themselves. Once considered to be operating in a regulatory gray area, these markets are increasingly being acknowledged as legitimate financial instruments in their own right.
Proponents claim that prediction markets can deliver more precise, real-time insights compared to traditional polling methods, with some even asserting that their informational worth is comparable to that of equities markets. The CFTC’s readiness to develop a compliance framework for event contracts, instead of outright banning them, signals a clear shift towards acceptance.
This development also has political implications. The re-emergence of Polymarket aligns with the involvement of 1789 Capital, which is supported by Donald Trump Jr., and comes on the heels of the discreet conclusion of previous DOJ and CFTC investigations. Whether this is mere coincidence or not, the timing has sparked conversations about how political influence might either foster or hinder innovation within the financial industry. This issue is expected to gain more attention as prediction markets become intertwined with elections and other politically charged events.
Importantly, Polymarket’s return heightens competition in a U.S. market that was previously led by Kalshi. Kalshi has already positioned itself as a CFTC-registered designated contract market, providing event contracts that include those related to political outcomes. With Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch, multiple entities will now function under regulatory supervision, fostering a more vibrant—and potentially more innovative—environment for prediction markets.
The combination of the CFTC’s no-action letter and Polymarket’s acquisition of QCEX signifies a pivotal moment for prediction markets. Although it does not serve as a blanket approval, the regulatory flexibility provides a viable route for these platforms to operate legally within U.S. derivatives regulations.
Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, publicly confirmed the platform’s “green light” to restart U.S. operations, commending the CFTC for their “impressive work” and “record timing.”
The Web3 gaming industry has transitioned from speculative approaches to prioritizing sustainability, enhanced gameplay, and strong infrastructure. According to a game developer director, the ongoing market correction is seen as an essential reset that paves the way for stable growth by removing projects that lack solid fundamentals.
A Necessary Reset for Web3 Gaming
Over the past few years, the Web3 gaming industry has experienced a major shift, transitioning from a phase of excitement and speculative play-to-earn (P2E) models to a greater emphasis on sustainability, enhanced gameplay, and improved infrastructure. Developers in the Web3 gaming space largely perceive the current market correction as a vital and beneficial reset.
As stated by Manfred Pack, the game development director at DAR Open Network, the emphasis has moved away from unsustainable speculation towards establishing long-term value. Pack argues that the initial excitement surrounding non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and P2E models was inherently unsustainable. He contends that the market correction has effectively paved the way for more stable growth by eliminating projects that lacked solid fundamentals.
Pack asserts that the developers who remain in the industry are no longer “chasing speculation” but are instead dedicated to crafting games that are built to endure. He shared with Bitcoin.com News that he believes blockchain is not a shortcut to success; rather, a game must first be enjoyable and captivating, with blockchain elements simply enhancing the core experience.
The Foundations of Developer Confidence
According to Pack, developers' confidence is rooted in several essential beliefs. Primarily, they view digital ownership as a crucial and lasting transformation within the industry.
"The assurance in Web3 gaming arises from the belief that digital ownership represents a fundamental shift, alongside the ongoing development of infrastructure such as wallets, scalability, and standards, as well as the understanding that blockchain is not merely a shortcut to achieving success," he contends.
The development director further asserts that the foundational infrastructure of Web3 has progressively advanced, showcasing notable enhancements in wallets, scalability solutions, and industry standards. Developers, in turn, have gained insights from previous setbacks, acknowledging that a viable game economy must be established on authentic gameplay and community engagement, rather than solely on tokenomics.
Pack also emphasized that the speculative bubble was not exclusively the result of developers' actions.
"Investors have invested heavily in projects driven by hype rather than solid fundamentals, which has led to increased volatility and made a correction unavoidable. However, this reset has opened the door for more sustainable growth," asserts the director.
The Emergence of AI Agents
The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and Web3 is ushering in a new age for gaming, transcending basic bots and scripted actions. Although the initial excitement surrounding AI in gaming stemmed from a limited range of capabilities, advocates of the technology believe that the real transformation is just starting. Pack, along with other gaming specialists, argues that more significant innovations are on the way. He further states:
The more significant innovations, including AI-powered PvP agents that can learn and adapt to player tactics, or fully 'lifelike' non-player characters capable of meaningful interactions over time, necessitate much more development and research. These are intricate systems that require time to evolve.
In the long term, these AI agents hold the promise of radically changing gaming by crafting dynamic, ongoing worlds where players’ choices influence their experiences. Additionally, these agents can "enhance the social and economic aspects of games, especially in blockchain-enabled environments where agent-driven economies can thrive alongside player-generated content."
The Interoperability Challenge
Despite significant advancements in recent years, the Web3 gaming sector is viewed as having fallen short of one of its most ambitious goals: achieving a truly seamless experience across different games. The surge of innovation and investment has not enabled developers to create games that fulfill the Web3 vision.
Pack attributes this evident shortcoming to a critical weakness in the blockchain sector — a lack of interoperability.
"The primary obstacle is interoperability. Each blockchain and game typically employs distinct standards, complicating seamless portability. While bridges can assist, they introduce additional complexity, costs, and security vulnerabilities," the director explains.
Moreover, Pack highlights the difficulty of maintaining progression and economies across various games as another significant barrier to achieving a genuinely seamless gaming experience. Additionally, some gaming studios hesitate to incorporate external assets into their economies, fearing it may undermine monetization or disrupt player progression.
To ensure interoperability succeeds, Pack emphasizes, "we require both technical frameworks and business models that incentivize collaboration." He points out that DAR Open Network exemplifies a Web3 gaming ecosystem designed to tackle this interoperability issue, facilitating the transfer of data, assets, and value across different networks. He also claims that DAR Open Network’s chain-agnostic architecture enables cross-game interoperability and shared experiences without necessitating users to frequently transfer assets or navigate complicated on-chain processes.
The Importance of Regulation and Public Trust
When discussing regulation, or the absence of it, Pack recognizes that this is a significant obstacle since varying jurisdictions classify tokens or NFTs differently, which ultimately "hinders innovation and introduces risks when trying out new models." Nonetheless, the majority of developers still see the necessity of regulation within the Web3 gaming sector.
"Nevertheless, most developers agree that well-crafted regulations are crucial. They provide clarity, safeguard players, and establish a solid groundwork for sustainable growth," he claims.
Pack also acknowledges that the failures of early Web3 games severely damaged public trust, and restoring this trust may pose the industry's greatest challenge to date. Looking forward, the director is confident that collaborations among studios, infrastructure providers, and ecosystems will be vital for the Web3 gaming industry as it strives to offer users a genuinely seamless experience across different games.
1439 ET – The dollar is losing strength, along with Treasury yields, as concerns about the U.S. job market overshadow the fiscal health anxieties that led to yesterday’s bond selloff and the dollar's increase. The BLS indicates a drop in job openings in July compared to June, which fuels predictions of more disappointing employment figures in August, set to be released on Friday. A weakening job market suggests a need for an interest rate cut, which negatively impacts the currency. The WSJ Dollar Index decreases by 0.2%, a drop intensified by this morning’s job openings report. The greenback declines by 0.3% against both the yen and the pound, and by 0.2% against the euro. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
Investors Reduce Short Positions on Dollar Following Global Bond Selloff
1228 GMT – Investors have reduced their short positions against the dollar after a global bond selloff, according to ING’s Francesco Pesole in a note. Rising debt concerns outside the U.S. may have prompted this reduction in dollar short positions, he notes. “However, we are skeptical that this will offer lasting support to the dollar ahead of significant data releases and the expected easing of Federal Reserve [policy],” he adds. Labor market data is becoming increasingly important after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that employment risks have surpassed inflation worries, he states. The job openings and labor turnover survey is scheduled for release at 1400 GMT, while the crucial nonfarm payrolls report will be published on Friday. The DXY dollar index drops 0.2% to 98.236, having previously reached a one-week high of 98.635. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
Sterling Implied Volatility Increases Following Gilt Selloff
1132 GMT – Sterling implied volatility, an important indicator of anticipated price fluctuations in the options market, surges after a significant increase in long-term U.K. government bond yields. According to LSEG data, the three-month implied volatility for sterling against the dollar reaches a two-month peak of 7.96%. Investor anxiety is being driven by the government's fiscal deficit, as noted by Convera's George Vessey. He states, “[U.K. Treasury chief] Rachel Reeves is confronted with a challenging balancing act: identifying savings amidst internal party conflicts while likely needing to increase taxes again in the autumn budget.” Reeves announced on Wednesday that the budget will be presented on November 26. Following this, sterling rises by 0.1% to $1.3398 after previously hitting a four-week low of $1.3330, as per LSEG data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
Sterling Declines as Long-End Gilt Yields Surge
0832 GMT – Sterling drops to a four-week low against the dollar as yields on long-dated U.K. government bonds sharply increase. The 30-year gilt yield reaches its highest level since 1998 at 5.752%, according to LSEG data. This shift is driven by high inflation and a reduction in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, as noted by ING's Francesco Pesole. While demand for ultra-long dated debt remains weak across developed markets, a recent 10-year gilt auction saw strong interest. Pesole suggests that sterling is unlikely to decline much further solely due to gilt movements. Sterling falls to a low of $1.3330, as reported by LSEG data. Meanwhile, the euro increases by 0.1% to 0.8702 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
Japanese Yen Declines as Ultra-Long Yields Surge
0903 GMT – The Japanese yen has dropped to a one-month low against the dollar, coinciding with a record high in the yields of the country’s 30-year government bonds. This comes amid fresh speculation regarding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's potential resignation. Ishiba has been under pressure to step down following his party's loss of majority in the upper house elections held in July. MUFG Bank’s Derek Halpenny notes, “Uncertainty will help fuel selling given the increased risks of a larger fiscal spending package if a new leader is elected who supports that.” He also mentions that this situation could raise doubts about a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in October. The dollar has climbed to a peak of 149.13 yen, while the yield on the 30-year JGB reached 3.292%, according to LSEG data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
Dollar Softens Ahead of U.S. Labor Market Data
0702 GMT – The dollar has retreated after significant gains on Tuesday as investors look forward to crucial U.S. labor market data. The job openings and turnover survey scheduled for 1400 GMT will be closely watched in anticipation of the much-awaited nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. The Federal Reserve is largely expected to initiate interest-rate cuts with a 25 basis-point reduction at its meeting on September 17, as indicated by LSEG data. However, if the jobs data turns out worse than expected, suggesting a considerable economic slowdown, markets might brace for more aggressive rate cuts. Fed governor Christopher Waller has indicated he could support a larger cut in September if the jobs data reflects “substantial weakening.” The DXY dollar index has decreased by 0.1% to 98.343. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
When President Trump announced his trade agreement with the European Union in July, businesses throughout the bloc believed it would put an end to months of uncertainty regarding one of the globe’s most profitable trade partnerships.
However, less than two months later, dissatisfaction with the agreement is escalating in Europe. Companies are suspending exports to the U.S., voicing concerns over new bureaucratic obstacles and cautioning about a forthcoming period of unpredictability.
The cause: the Trump administration’s choice to broaden its 50% metals tariffs to include hundreds of additional products that incorporate steel and aluminum, imposing higher tariffs on a significant number of European manufacturers than the 15% that Trump and the EU had settled on for most items.
Initially, the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were aimed solely at the metals themselves and primarily metal components, like screws, but they now extend to items such as motors, pumps, machine tools, and construction machinery.
“Approximately 30% of U.S. machinery imports from the EU are now subjected to 50% tariffs on the metal content of the product,” Bertram Kawlath, president of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA), stated in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the end of August. He further noted that the sector is confronting an “existential crisis.”
The White House and the Commerce Department did not promptly reply to requests for comments.
The reluctant acceptance of the July agreement is now at risk of falling apart. Discontent is not only growing among politicians in EU member states but is also reaching the European Parliament, which must approve essential components of the deal for it to be implemented.
"There is no security and predictability" in the U.S.-EU agreement, stated Bernd Lange, a German politician who chairs the parliament’s trade committee. Lange mentioned that he anticipates lawmakers will push for modifications to the proposed legislation that would either eliminate or lessen tariffs on various U.S. imports as per the July deal.
"Why should the EU offer zero tariffs on U.S. motorbikes, when European manufacturers are currently facing not just a 15% tariff but also additional steel and aluminum tariffs?" Lange questioned.
Bernard Krone, the head of Krone Group, which produces agricultural machinery and commercial vehicles, shares this sentiment.
Following the Commerce Department's expansion of metals tariffs to include hundreds of derivative products starting last month, the company ceased exports to the U.S., stopped production intended for that market, and sent 100 employees home. Krone is now considering rerouting shipments that are already in transit to Mexico and Canada.
"We are uncertain if our clients are willing to pay 15% or even 50% more for a machine or its spare parts," Krone remarked, noting that this disruption would have a long-lasting impact on the company’s sales in the U.S.
U.S. companies are also impacted. Deere, a major competitor of Krone, operates plants in Mannheim and Zweibrücken, Germany. According to a company spokeswoman, approximately 20% of its production in Germany is sent to the U.S.
"We are depending on structural cost discipline and strong collaboration with our distribution partners to mitigate the effects" of the steel tariffs, the spokeswoman stated. "We do not intend to move our production from Germany to the U.S."
The effective tariff that exporters face now fluctuates based on the metal content of a product. For instance, a machine valued at $1 million with 20% steel content would incur a rate of 50% on $200,000 and 15% on the remaining amount, leading to a total levy of $220,000 per machine, which equates to a 22% tariff. The U.S. has indicated it will reassess the metals tariff list every four months, contributing to the uncertainty.
The VDMA is currently urging the European Commission, which negotiated the agreement on behalf of EU members, to establish a 15% tariff cap on machinery, similar to what was done for autos, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber.
EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič remarked on Wednesday that the EU does not threaten American steel producers, and both economies are contending with low-cost imports from other nations.
"I am aware that they comprehend the situation, they are informed about our stances, but I cannot predict when we will reach a resolution," Šefčovič commented.
After the trade agreement was announced, European officials indicated that both parties would collaborate on a quota system that might permit a specific volume of EU steel and aluminum to enter the U.S. at a reduced tariff rate. However, they have not revealed any advancements in those discussions.
The VDMA argues that such quotas would not resolve the primary concern regarding the expanded steel tariffs: the administrative burden they place on manufacturers. If their products are included on the steel tariff list, they must investigate their metal content or face penalties.
Krone has stated that it now needs to document the steel and aluminum content of the 15,000 components that constitute its Big X forage harvester, for example. Between 10% and 15% of the company's agricultural equipment sales are directed towards North America.
Even businesses whose products are not directly affected by the steel tariffs can find themselves caught up in the situation.
Consider valves, which are standard devices used to control the flow of liquids within machinery. Although valves are not included on the expanded steel tariff list, they are utilized in injection-molding machines. Since these machines are listed, their manufacturers are now required to gather information from their suppliers regarding the steel content of their valves—where the steel was purchased, the price paid, and the location where the metal was melted and cast.
In contrast to car manufacturers, machinery producers are frequently small to medium-sized enterprises that lack significant manufacturing capabilities in the U.S.
Krone is set to establish its first assembly line close to its U.S. headquarters in Olive Branch, Mississippi, but this will only be for smaller machines. The company notes that a shortage of skilled labor and elevated production costs complicate the manufacturing of larger, more intricate equipment in that region.
Institutional investors are increasingly looking for regulated access to digital assets as banks modify their services to satisfy this demand. On September 3, U.S. Bank announced that it has restarted its cryptocurrency custody services, which were first launched in 2021, through an early access program for clients of Global Fund Services. The bank elaborated:
These services are designed for institutional investment managers with registered or private funds who are in search of a secure solution for the safekeeping of bitcoin.
The revamped platform also offers support for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with NYDIG, a firm specializing in bitcoin financial services and infrastructure, chosen as the sub-custodian.
Executives framed the relaunch as a continuation of previous efforts and a reaction to changing regulations. Stephen Philipson, vice chair of U.S. Bank Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, remarked: “We take pride in being one of the first banks to provide cryptocurrency custody for fund and institutional custody clients back in 2021, and we are thrilled to bring this service back this year. With increased regulatory clarity, we have broadened our offerings to include bitcoin ETFs, enabling us to deliver comprehensive solutions for managers in need of custody and administration services.
NYDIG’s CEO Tejas Shah expressed, "We are privileged to collaborate with U.S. Bank as its main provider for bitcoin custody services. This partnership allows us to connect traditional finance with the contemporary economy, enabling Global Fund Services clients to access bitcoin as a reliable form of currency, all while ensuring the safety and security that regulated financial institutions demand."
Additionally, broader strategic goals were emphasized. Dominic Venturo, senior executive vice president and chief digital officer at U.S. Bank, stated, "U.S. Bank has been leading the way in investigating how digital assets can benefit our clients. By further enhancing our capabilities, we open up new avenues to provide innovative solutions to those we serve. U.S. Bank is committed to advancing progress and shaping the future of what is important for our clients in the realm of digital finance." With $11.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration as of June 30, 2025, the bank’s re-entry into bitcoin custody indicates a growing institutional willingness to engage with cryptocurrencies. Although critics point out the risks associated with market volatility and custodial complexities, supporters argue that regulated partnerships enhance security and expand access for institutional investors looking to invest in this asset class.
Technology stocks have reclaimed their leading position. The Nasdaq Composite experienced significant gains during Wednesday's trading session, driven by rising shares of Alphabet and Apple.
Alphabet's stock surged by 9.1% after Google successfully evaded severe antitrust penalties. A U.S. judge permitted the company to retain both its Chrome browser and its collaboration with Apple. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and gold also saw increases.
Even with the gains on Wednesday, investors are preparing for potential volatility in September, a month that has historically been unfavorable for stock market performance. Both stocks and bonds faced declines on Tuesday as investors expressed concerns over inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve.
"Given September's poor historical performance, the defensive sectors have proven to be the most resilient," remarked Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Commenting on the market fluctuations this week, he noted, "We’ve observed at least one instance of a one-day turnaround in that rotation."
Shares of U.S. oil producers negatively impacted the S&P 500, plummeting sharply on Wednesday amid speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies might opt to increase output, potentially worsening a global fuel surplus when the cartel convenes this weekend.
The 30-year Treasury yield retreated after briefly exceeding 5% early Wednesday, while the 10-year Treasury also saw a rally. These changes followed a government report indicating an increase in private layoffs compared to the previous year, along with a speech from a Federal Reserve official that highlighted "downside risks to the labor market."
In Europe, yields on longer-term debt stabilized after reaching their highest levels in over a decade on Tuesday. Japan, however, lagged behind, with bond prices remaining under pressure, resulting in higher yields.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to begin interviewing candidates for the next chair of the Federal Reserve starting this Friday, as reported by sources familiar with the situation.
Macy's stock experienced a significant increase of 21% following the department store's upward revision of its annual forecast. Nevertheless, the company anticipates that consumers will be more selective due to tariffs and various economic challenges in the latter half of the year.
In the previous quarter, earnings per share for S&P 500 companies increased by approximately 13% compared to the same period last year, based on LSEG data that includes projections for companies that have yet to report.
During trading on Wednesday:
The stock market showed mixed results. The Dow industrials remained relatively stable, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, climbing by 1%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased to 4.211%, and the 30-year bond yield stood at 4.892%.
The WSJ Dollar Index experienced a slight decline.
Gold prices continued to rise. Gold futures for September delivery increased by 1.2%, closing at a record high of $3,593.20 per troy ounce.
Japanese and most Asian stock markets saw declines, whereas European markets experienced gains.
Oil prices fell following a media report indicating that OPEC+ might consider increasing output again after their meeting on Sunday.
